US Birthrate Fell Slightly in 2022 After Prior Year Jump

The number of U.S. births dropped slightly in 2022 after rising last year, with only 10 states seeing more than 100,000 births.

The country saw 3,661,220 births in 2022, according to a May 1 report (pdf) from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics. This is a marginal decline from the 3,664,292 births in 2021, a decrease of 3,072.

The latest numbers come after a 4 percent decline in 2019–2020 and a 1 percent jump in 2020–2021. The United States has seen births fall by 2 percent annually between 2014 and 2020.

California topped the list of states with the highest number of births, registering 418,523 infants in 2022. This was followed by Texas with 389,533 births, Florida with 224,226, and New York with 207,484 births. Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New Jersey, Michigan, Illinois, and Georgia were the other states which saw births exceed 100,000.

Race-wise, white women, Alaskan native women, and American Indian women saw births fall by 3 percent. Births among black women declined by 1 percent. Asian women registered a 2 percent increase in births while Native Hawaiian and Hispanic women saw births jump by 6 percent.

Women in the age ranges 25–29 and 35–49 saw birth rates rise while the rates for women in the age groups of 12–24 and 30–34 declined. Among teens aged 15–19, birth rates dropped by 3 percent to 13.5 births per 1,000 females.

Low Fertility Consequences

According to the National Center for Health Statistics, fertility rates in America continued to remain low.

“The total fertility rate in 2022 remained at below replacement—the level at which a given generation can exactly replace itself (2,100 births per 1,000 women). The rate has generally been below replacement since 1971 and consistently below replacement since 2007.”

A fertility rate below the replacement rate is a dangerous trend for society. For one, this would mean that the share of retiring people keeps rising.

As such, a smaller pool of younger, able-bodied individuals will have to work towards funding the pensions and health care expenses of a growing population. Due to the shrinking ratio of people who are working, the government may be forced to raise taxes.

Innovation rates of a society can also take a hit since it is the younger population that tends to be innovative and entrepreneurial.

“None of the world’s 15 largest economies now have fertility rates over 2.1. The aging and shrinking of the world will pose a threat to the most disruptive innovation and entrepreneurship, disproportionately pioneered by the young,” Mike Bird, Asia business and finance editor at The Economist, said in a June 1 tweet.

In May 2022, Tesla CEO Elon Musk had warned that “civilization is going to crumble” due to the loss of so many people. Earlier in 2019, he predicted that the biggest problem the world will face in the next two decades would be population collapse.

Urbanization and Fewer Children

Demographers point to multiple reasons that fertility rates are declining, with one factor standing out—urbanization. As people move from rural areas to cities, the economics of having children changes. Instead of being a source of labor, children end up becoming an expense.

In the United States, the average cost of raising a child into adulthood is $267,000, which does not take into account college expenses. Urbanization also boosts female education, employment, independence, and access to contraception.

A November 2021 survey by Pew Research found that 21 percent of nonparents below the age of 50 were “not too likely” to have children, with 23 percent claiming it to be “not at all likely.”

While 56 percent said the reason they do not want to have kids is that they “just don’t want to,” 43 percent blamed factors such as medical reasons, their financial situation, having no partner, their age, and the state of the world.

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